One year health outcomes associated with systemic corticosteroids for COVID-19: a longitudinal cohort study (preprint)

BackgroundIn patients with COVID-19 requiring supplemental oxygen, dexamethasone reduces acute severity and improves survival, but longer-term effects are unknown. We hypothesised that systemic corticosteroid administration during acute COVID-19 would be associated with improved health-related quality of life (HRQoL) one year after discharge. MethodsAdults admitted to hospital between February 2020 and March 2021 for COVID-19 and meeting current guideline recommendations for dexamethasone treatment were included using two prospective UK cohort studies. HRQoL, assessed by EQ-5D-5L utility index, pre-hospital and one year after discharge were compared between those receiving corticosteroids or not after propensity weighting for treatment. Secondary outcomes included patient reported recovery, physical and mental health status, and measures of organ impairment. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to account for survival and selection bias. FindingsIn 1,888 participants included in the primary analysis, 1,149 received corticosteroids. There was no between-group difference in EQ-5D-5L utility index at one year (mean difference 0.004, 95% CI: -0.026 to 0.034, p = 0.77). A similar reduction in EQ-5D-5L was seen at one year between corticosteroid exposed and non-exposed groups (mean (SD) change -0.12 (0.22) vs -0.11 (0.22), p = 0.32). Overall, there were no differences in secondary outcome measures. After sensitivity analyses modelled using a larger cohort of 109,318 patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, EQ-5D-5L utility index at one year remained similar between the two groups. InterpretationSystemic corticosteroids for acute COVID-19 have no impact on the large reduction in HRQoL one year after hospital discharge. Treatments to address this are urgently needed. Take home messageSystemic corticosteroids given for acute COVID-19 do not affect health-related quality of life or other patient reported outcomes, physical and mental health outcomes, and organ function one year after hospital discharge

Cohort Profile: Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) (preprint)

Abstract [bullet] PHOSP-COVID is a national UK multi-centre cohort study of patients who were hospitalised for COVID-19 and subsequently discharged. [bullet] PHOSP-COVID was established to investigate the medium- and long-term sequelae of severe COVID-19 requiring hospitalisation, understand the underlying mechanisms of these sequelae, evaluate the medium- and long-term effects of COVID-19 treatments, and to serve as a platform to enable future studies, including clinical trials. [bullet] Data collected covered a wide range of physical measures, biological samples, and Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs). [bullet] Participants could join the cohort either in Tier 1 only with remote data collection using hospital records, a PROMs app and postal saliva sample for DNA, or in Tier 2 where they were invited to attend two specific research visits for further data collection and biological research sampling. These research visits occurred at five (range 2-7) months and 12 (range 10-14) months post-discharge. Participants could also participate in specific nested studies (Tier 3) at selected sites. [bullet] All participants were asked to consent to further follow-up for 25 years via linkage to their electronic healthcare records and to be re-contacted for further research. [bullet] In total, 7935 participants were recruited from 83 UK sites: 5238 to Tier 1 and 2697 to Tier 2, between August 2020 and March 2022. [bullet] Cohort data are held in a Trusted Research Environment and samples stored in a central biobank. Data and samples can be accessed upon request and subject to approvals.

Effects of sleep disturbance on dyspnoea and impaired lung function following hospital admission due to COVID-19 in the UK: a prospective multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sleep disturbance is common following hospital admission both for COVID-19 and other causes. The clinical associations of this for recovery after hospital admission are poorly understood despite sleep disturbance contributing to morbidity in other scenarios. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and nature of sleep disturbance after discharge following hospital admission for COVID-19 and to assess whether this was associated with dyspnoea. METHODS: CircCOVID was a prospective multicentre cohort substudy designed to investigate the effects of circadian disruption and sleep disturbance on recovery after COVID-19 in a cohort of participants aged 18 years or older, admitted to hospital for COVID-19 in the UK, and discharged between March, 2020, and October, 2021. Participants were recruited from the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID). Follow-up data were collected at two timepoints: an early time point 2-7 months after hospital discharge and a later time point 10-14 months after hospital discharge. Sleep quality was assessed subjectively using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index questionnaire and a numerical rating scale. Sleep quality was also assessed with an accelerometer worn on the wrist (actigraphy) for 14 days. Participants were also clinically phenotyped, including assessment of symptoms (ie, anxiety [Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7-item scale questionnaire], muscle function [SARC-F questionnaire], dyspnoea [Dyspnoea-12 questionnaire] and measurement of lung function), at the early timepoint after discharge. Actigraphy results were also compared to a matched UK Biobank cohort (non-hospitalised individuals and recently hospitalised individuals). Multivariable linear regression was used to define associations of sleep disturbance with the primary outcome of breathlessness and the other clinical symptoms. PHOSP-COVID is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107). FINDINGS: 2320 of 2468 participants in the PHOSP-COVID study attended an early timepoint research visit a median of 5 months (IQR 4-6) following discharge from 83 hospitals in the UK. Data for sleep quality were assessed by subjective measures (the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index questionnaire and the numerical rating scale) for 638 participants at the early time point. Sleep quality was also assessed using device-based measures (actigraphy) a median of 7 months (IQR 5-8 months) after discharge from hospital for 729 participants. After discharge from hospital, the majority (396 [62%] of 638) of participants who had been admitted to hospital for COVID-19 reported poor sleep quality in response to the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index questionnaire. A comparable proportion (338 [53%] of 638) of participants felt their sleep quality had deteriorated following discharge after COVID-19 admission, as assessed by the numerical rating scale. Device-based measurements were compared to an age-matched, sex-matched, BMI-matched, and time from discharge-matched UK Biobank cohort who had recently been admitted to hospital. Compared to the recently hospitalised matched UK Biobank cohort, participants in our study slept on average 65 min (95% CI 59 to 71) longer, had a lower sleep regularity index (-19%; 95% CI -20 to -16), and a lower sleep efficiency (3·83 percentage points; 95% CI 3·40 to 4·26). Similar results were obtained when comparisons were made with the non-hospitalised UK Biobank cohort. Overall sleep quality (unadjusted effect estimate 3·94; 95% CI 2·78 to 5·10), deterioration in sleep quality following hospital admission (3·00; 1·82 to 4·28), and sleep regularity (4·38; 2·10 to 6·65) were associated with higher dyspnoea scores. Poor sleep quality, deterioration in sleep quality, and sleep regularity were also associated with impaired lung function, as assessed by forced vital capacity. Depending on the sleep metric, anxiety mediated 18-39% of the effect of sleep disturbance on dyspnoea, while muscle weakness mediated 27-41% of this effect. INTERPRETATION: Sleep disturbance following hospital admission for COVID-19 is associated with dyspnoea, anxiety, and muscle weakness. Due to the association with multiple symptoms, targeting sleep disturbance might be beneficial in treating the post-COVID-19 condition. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institute for Health Research, and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

The effects of sleep disturbance on dyspnoea and impaired lung function following COVID-19 hospitalisation: a prospective multi-centre cohort study (preprint)

Background Sleep disturbance is common following hospitalisation both for COVID-19 and other causes. The clinical associations are poorly understood, despite it altering pathophysiology in other scenarios. We, therefore, investigated whether sleep disturbance is associated with dyspnoea along with relevant mediation pathways. Methods Sleep parameters were assessed in a prospective cohort of patients (n=2,468) hospitalised for COVID-19 in the United Kingdom in 39 centres using both subjective and device-based measures. Results were compared to a matched UK biobank cohort and associations were evaluated using multivariable linear regression. Findings 64% (456/714) of participants reported poor sleep quality; 56% felt their sleep quality had deteriorated for at least 1-year following hospitalisation. Compared to the matched cohort, both sleep regularity (44.5 vs 59.2, p<0.001) and sleep efficiency (85.4% vs 88.5%, p<0.001) were lower whilst sleep period duration was longer (8.25h vs 7.32h, p<0.001). Overall sleep quality (effect estimate 4.2 (3.0-5.5)), deterioration in sleep quality following hospitalisation (effect estimate 3.2 (2.0-4.5)), and sleep regularity (effect estimate 5.9 (3.7-8.1)) were associated with both dyspnoea and impaired lung function (FEV1 and FVC). Depending on the sleep metric, anxiety mediated 13-42% of the effect of sleep disturbance on dyspnoea and muscle weakness mediated 29-43% of this effect. Interpretation Sleep disturbance is associated with dyspnoea, anxiety and muscle weakness following COVID-19 hospitalisation. It could have similar effects for other causes of hospitalisation where sleep disturbance is prevalent.

Apixaban following discharge in hospitalised adults with COVID-19: Preliminary results from a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled platform clinical trial. (preprint)

Background The role of thromboprophylaxis in the post-acute phase of COVID-19 is uncertain due to conflicting results from randomised controlled trials and observational studies. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of post-hospital apixaban in reducing the rate of death and hospital readmission of hospitalised adults with COVID-19. Methods HEAL COVID is an adaptive randomised open label multicentre platform trial recruiting participants from National Health Service Hospitals in the United Kingdom. Here we report the preliminary results of apixaban comparison of HEAL-COVID. Participants with a hospital admission related to confirmed COVID-19 and an expected date of discharge in the subsequent five days were randomised to either apixaban 2.5 mg twice daily or standard care (no anticoagulation) for 14 days. The primary outcome was hospital free survival at 12 months obtained through routine data sources. The trial was prospectively registered with ISRCTN (15851697) and Clincialtrials.gov (NCT04801940). Findings Between 19 May 2021 and 21 November 2022, 402 participants from 109 sites were randomised to apixaban and 399 to standard care. Seven participants withdrew from the apixaban group and one from the standard care group. Analysis was undertaken on an intention-to-treat basis. The apixaban arm was stopped on the recommendation of the oversight committees following an interim analysis due to no indication of benefit. Of the 402 participants randomised to apixaban, 117 experienced death or rehospitalisation during a median follow-up of 344.5 days (IQR 125 to 365), and 123 participants receiving standard care experienced death or rehospitalisation during a median follow-up of 349 days (IQR 124 to 365). There was no statistical difference in the rate of death and rehospitalisation (HR: 0.96 99%CI 0.69-1.34; p=0.75). Three participants in the apixaban arm experienced clinically significant bleeding during treatment. Interpretation Fourteen days of post-hospital anticoagulation with the direct oral anticoagulant apixaban did not reduce the rate of death or rehospitalisation of adults hospitalised with COVID-19. These data do not support the use of prophylactic post-hospital anticoagulation in adults with COVID-19. Funding HEAL-COVID is funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research [NIHR133788] and the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre [ BRC-1215-20014*].

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of Long-COVID and association with one-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study (preprint)

Background There are currently no effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions for Long-COVID. To identify potential therapeutic targets, we focussed on previously described four recovery clusters five months after hospital discharge, their underlying inflammatory profiles and relationship with clinical outcomes at one year. Methods PHOSP-COVID is a prospective longitudinal cohort study, recruiting adults hospitalised with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient reported outcomes measures (PROMs), physical performance, and organ function at five-months and one-year after hospital discharge. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at one-year. Cluster analysis was performed using clustering large applications (CLARA) k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at five-months. Inflammatory protein profiling from plasma at the five-month visit was performed. Findings 2320 participants have been assessed at five months after discharge and 807 participants have completed both five-month and one-year visits. Of these, 35.6% were female, mean age 58.7 (SD 12.5) years, and 27.8% received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between five months 501/165 (25.6%) and one year 232/804 (28.9%). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at one year were: female sex OR 0.68 (95% CI 0.46-0.99), obesity OR 0.50 (95%CI 0.34-0.74) and IMV OR 0.42 (95%CI 0.23-0.76). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate/cognitive, mild relating to the severity of physical, mental health and cognitive impairments at five months in a larger sample. There was elevation of inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate/cognitive clusters compared to the mild cluster including interleukin-6 which was elevated in both comparisons. Overall, there was a substantial deficit in median (IQR) EQ5D-5L utility index from pre-COVID (retrospective assessment) 0.88 (0.74-1.00), five months 0.74 (0.60-0.88) to one year: 0.74 (0.59-0.88), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at one-year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters. Interpretation The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 remain substantial one year after discharge across a range of health domains with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient perceived health-related quality of life remains reduced at one year compared to pre-hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

Genetic overlap between idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and COVID-19 (preprint)

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) have identified genetic loci associated with both traits, suggesting possible shared biological mechanisms. Using updated GWAS of COVID-19 and IPF, we evaluated the genetic overlap between these two diseases and identified four genetic loci (including one novel) with likely shared causal variants between severe COVID-19 and IPF. Although there was a positive genetic correlation between COVID-19 and IPF, two of these four shared genetic loci had an opposite direction of effect. IPF-associated genetic variants related to telomere dysfunction and spindle assembly showed no association with COVID-19 phenotypes. Together, these results suggest there are both shared and distinct biological processes driving IPF and severe COVID-19 phenotypes.

Clinical utility of home versus hospital spirometry in fibrotic ILD: evaluation following INJUSTIS interim analysis (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic identified an urgent need to re-evaluate the provision of spirometry for clinical monitoring. Home spirometry offers the opportunity for real-time disease evaluation without risk of nosocomial infection. To determine the utility of home spirometry in interstitial lung disease (ILD), interim data from the ongoing INJUSTIS study was evaluated. High correlation was observed between home and hospital spirometry at baseline(r=0.89) and three-months(r=0.82). Over 90% of home spirometry values were within Bland-Altman agreement limits at both time points, although frequently underestimated hospital values. Home spirometry is feasible in people with fibrotic ILD.

Physical, cognitive and mental health impacts of COVID-19 following hospitalisation: a multi-centre prospective cohort study (preprint)

Background The impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health, and employment following hospitalisation is poorly understood. Methods PHOSP-COVID is a multi-centre, UK, observational study of adults discharged from hospital with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 involving an assessment between two- and seven-months later including detailed symptom, physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was performed for patient-perceived recovery with age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), co-morbidities, and severity of acute illness as co-variates. Cluster analysis was performed using outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognition and physical function. Findings We report findings of 1077 patients discharged in 2020, from the assessment undertaken a median 5 [IQR4 to 6] months later: 36% female, mean age 58 [SD 13] years, 69% white ethnicity, 27% mechanical ventilation, and 50% had at least two co-morbidities. At follow-up only 29% felt fully recovered, 20% had a new disability, and 19% experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with failure to recover were female, middle-age, white ethnicity, two or more co-morbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial and weakly related to acute severity. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment: 1) Very severe (17%), 2) Severe (21%), 3) Moderate with cognitive impairment (17%), 4) Mild (46%), with 3%, 7%, 36% and 43% feeling fully recovered, respectively. Persistent systemic inflammation determined by C-reactive protein was related to cluster severity, but not acute illness severity. Interpretation We identified factors related to recovery from a hospital admission with COVID-19 and four different phenotypes relating to the severity of physical, mental, and cognitive health five months later. The implications for clinical care include the potential to stratify care and the need for a pro-active approach with wide-access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services. Funding: UKRI and NIHR

Post-viral parenchymal lung disease of COVID-19 and viral pneumonitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis. (preprint)

BackgroundApproximately half of COVID-19 survivors present persisting breathlessness, which may include development of pulmonary fibrosis. Research QuestionWhat is the prevalence of long-term radiological and functional pulmonary sequelae of parenchymal lung disease following hospitalisation with COVID-19 and other viral pneumonia? Study design and methodsWe performed systematic review and random effects meta-analysis of studies in adults hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, or Influenza pneumonia and followed within 12 months from discharge. Searches were run on MEDLINE and Embase, updated 29 July 2021. Primary outcomes were proportion of 1) radiologic sequelae at CT scans; 2) restrictive impairment; 3) impaired gas transfer. Heterogeneity was explored in meta-regression. ResultsNinety-five studies were included for qualitative synthesis, of which 70 were suitable for meta-analysis, including 60 studies of SARS-CoV-2 with a median follow up of 3 months. In SARS-CoV-2 the overall estimated proportion of inflammatory changes during follow up was 0.50 (95%CI 0.41 to 0.58, I2=94.6%), whilst fibrotic changes were estimated at 0.29 (95%CI 0.22 to 0.37, I2=94.1%). Inflammatory changes reduced compared with CTs performed during hospitalisation (-0.47; 95%CI -0.56 to -0.37), whereas no significant resolution was observed in fibrotic changes (-0.09; 95%CI -0.25 to 0.07). Impaired gas transfer was estimated at 0.38 (95%CI 0.32 to 0.44, I2=92.1%), which was greater than estimated restrictive impairment (0.17; 95%CI 0.13 to 0.23, I2=92.5%). High heterogeneity means that estimates should be interpreted with caution. Confidence in the estimates was deemed low due to the heterogeneity and because studies were largely observational without controls. InterpretationA substantial proportion of radiological and functional sequelae consistent with parenchymal lung disease are observed following COVID-19 and other viral pneumonitis. Estimates of prevalence are limited by differences in case mix and initial severity. This highlights the importance of extended radiological and functional follow-up post hospitalisation. PROSPERO registrationCRD42020183139 (April 2020)

Shared genetic etiology between idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and COVID-19 severity (preprint)

BackgroundIdiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a complex lung disease, characterized by progressive lung scarring. Severe COVID-19 is associated with substantial pneumonitis and has a number of shared major risk factors with IPF. This study aimed to determine the genetic correlation between IPF and severe COVID-19 and assess a potential causal role of genetically increased risk of IPF on COVID-19 severity. MethodsWe performed a Mendelian randomisation (MR) study for IPF causality in COVID-19. Genetic variants associated with IPF susceptibility (P<5x10-8) in previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were used as instrumental variables (IVs). Effect estimates of those IVs on COVID-19 severity were gathered from the GWAS meta-analysis by the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative. The genetic correlation between IPF and COVID-19 severity was estimated with linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression. FindingsWe detected a positive genetic correlation of IPF with COVID-19 severity (rg=0.31 [95% CI 0.04-0.57], P = 0.023). The MR estimates for severe COVID-19 did not reveal any genetic association (OR 1.05, [95% CI 0.92-1.20], P = 0.43). However, outlier analysis revealed that the IPF risk allele rs35705950 at MUC5B had a different effect compared with the other variants. When rs35705950 was excluded, MR results provided evidence that genetically increased risk of IPF has a causal effect on COVID-19 severity (OR 1.21, [95% CI 1.06-1.38], P = 4.24x10-3). Furthermore, the IPF risk-allele at MUC5B showed an apparent protective effect against COVID-19 hospitalization only in older adults (OR 0.86, [95% CI 0.73-1.00], P = 2.99x10-2). InterpretationThe strongest genetic determinant of IPF, rs35705950 at MUC5B, seems to confer protection against COVID-19, whereas the combined effect of all other IPF risk loci seem to confer risk of COVID-19 severity. The observed effect of rs35705950 could either be due to protective effects of mucin over-production on the airways or a consequence of selection bias due to a patient group that is heavily enriched for the rs35705950 T undertaking strict self-isolation. Due to the diverse impact of IPF causal variants on SARS-CoV-2 infection, further investigation is needed to address this apparent paradox between variance at MUC5B and other IPF genetic risk factors. FundingNovo Nordisk Foundation and Oak Foundation.

Single-cell RNA-sequencing reveals dysregulation of molecular programs associated with SARS-CoV-2 severity and outcomes in patients with chronic lung disease (preprint)

Rationale: Patients with chronic lung disease have an increased risk for severe coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) and poor outcomes. Objectives: To identify molecular characteristics of diseased lung epithelial and immune cells that may account for worse COVID-19 outcomes in patients with chronic lung diseases. Methods: We analyzed the transcriptomes of 605,904 single cells isolated from healthy (79 samples) and diseased human lungs (31 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 82 idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and 18 non-IPF interstitial lung disease samples). Measurements and Main Results: Cellular distribution and relative expression of SARS-CoV-2 entry factors (ACE2, TMPRSS2) was similar in disease and control lungs. Epithelial cells isolated from diseased lungs expressed higher levels of genes linked directly to efficiency of viral replication and the innate immune response. Unique ACE2-correlated gene sets were identified for each diagnosis group in the type II alveolar cells. Diseased lungs have a significant increase in the proportion of CD4, CD8 and NK cells compared to control lungs. Components of the interferon pathway, the IL6 cytokine pathway and the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II genes are upregulated in several diseased immune cell types. These differences in inflammatory gene expression programs highlight how chronic lung disease alters the inflammatory microenvironment encountered upon viral exposure to the peripheral lung. Conclusions: Chronic lung disease is accompanied by changes in cell-type-specific gene expression programs that prime the lung epithelium for and influence innate and adaptive immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Impact of clade specific mutations on structural fidelity of SARS-CoV-2 proteins (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 is a positive stranded RNA virus with a genome size of ~29.9 kilobase pairs which spans 29 open reading frames. Studies have revealed that the genome encodes about 16 non-structural proteins (nsp), four structural proteins, and six or seven accessory proteins. Based on prevalent knowledge on SARS-CoV and other coronaviruses, functions have been assigned for majority of the proteins. While, researchers across the globe are engrossed in identifying a potential pharmacological intervention to control the viral outbreak, none of the work has come up with new antiviral drugs or vaccines yet. One possible approach that has shown some positive results is by treating infected patients with the plasma collected from convalescent COVID-19 patients. Several vaccines around the world have entered their final trial phase in humans and we expect that these will in time be available for application to worldwide population to combat the disease. In this work we analyse the effect of prevalent mutations in the major pathogenesis related proteins of SARS-COV2 and attempt to pinpoint the effects of those mutations on the structural stability of the proteins. Our observations and analysis direct us to identify that all the major mutations have a negative impact in context of stability of the viral proteins under study and the mutant proteins suffer both structural and functional alterations as a result of the mutations. Our binary scoring scheme identifies L84S mutation in ORF8 as the most disruptive of the mutations under study. We believe that, the virus is under the influence of an evolutionary phenomenon similar to Muller s ratchet where the continuous accumulation of these mutations is making the virus less virulent which may also explain the reduction in fatality rates worldwide. Keywords: SARS-COV2, Covid19, Mutations, Structural Analysis

Viral surface geometry shapes influenza and coronavirus spike evolution (preprint)

The evolution of circulating viruses is shaped by their need to evade the adaptive immune system. The spike protein which mediates entry to the host cell is the main target of antibody response. Because of the dense presentation of spikes on the viral surface, not all antigenic sites are targeted equally by antibodies, leading to complex immunodominance patterns. We used 3D coarse-grained computational models to estimate the antibody pressure on the seasonal flu H1N1 and the SARS subgenus spikes. Analyzing publically available sequences, we show that antibody pressure, through the geometrical organization of these spikes on the viral surface, shaped their mutability. Studying the mutability patterns of SARS-CoV-2 and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic spikes, we find that they are not predominantly shaped by antibody pressure. However, for SARS-CoV-2, we find that over time, it acquired, at low frequency, several mutations at antibody-accessible positions, which could indicate possible escape as define by our model. Hence, we offer a geometry-based approach to estimate and assess whether a pandemic virus is changing its mutational pattern to that indicative of a circulating virus.

Outcome of hospitalisation for COVID-19 in patients with Interstitial Lung Disease: An international multicentre study. (preprint)

Rationale: The impact of COVID-19 on patients with Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) has not been established. Objectives: To assess outcomes following COVID-19 in patients with ILD versus those without in a contemporaneous age, sex and comorbidity matched population. Methods: An international multicentre audit of patients with a prior diagnosis of ILD admitted to hospital with COVID-19 between 1 March and 1 May 2020 was undertaken and compared with patients, without ILD obtained from the ISARIC 4C cohort, admitted with COVID-19 over the same period. The primary outcome was survival. Secondary analysis distinguished IPF from non-IPF ILD and used lung function to determine the greatest risks of death. Measurements and Main Results: Data from 349 patients with ILD across Europe were included, of whom 161 were admitted to hospital with laboratory or clinical evidence of COVID-19 and eligible for propensity-score matching. Overall mortality was 49% (79/161) in patients with ILD with COVID-19. After matching ILD patients with COVID-19 had higher mortality (HR 1.60, Confidence Intervals 1.17-2.18 p=0.003) compared with age, sex and co-morbidity matched controls without ILD. Patients with a Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) of <80% had an increased risk of death versus patients with FVC [≥]80% (HR 1.72, 1.05-2.83). Furthermore, obese patients with ILD had an elevated risk of death (HR 1.98, 1.13-3.46). Conclusions: Patients with ILD are at increased risk of death from COVID-19, particularly those with poor lung function and obesity. Stringent precautions should be taken to avoid COVID-19 in patients with ILD.

The British Thoracic Society survey of rehabilitation to support recovery of the Post Covid -19 population. (preprint)

ObjectivesThose discharged from hospital after treatment for Covid-19 are likely to have significant and ongoing symptoms, functional impairment and psychological disturbances. There is an immediate need to develop a safe and efficient discharge process and recovery programme. Pulmonary rehabilitation is well placed to deliver a rehabilitation programme for this group but will most likely need to be adapted for the post Covid-19 population. The purpose of this survey was to rapidly identify the components of a post-Covid-19 rehabilitation assessment and elements of a successful rehabilitation programme that would be required to deliver a comprehensive service for those post Covid-19 to inform service delivery. DesignA survey comprising a series of closed questions and a free text comments box allowing for a qualitative analysis. SettingOnline survey. ParticipantsBritish Thoracic Society members and multi-professional clinicians, across specialities were invited to take part. Results1031 participants responded from a broad range of specialities over 6 days. There was overwhelming support for early post discharge from hospital phase of the recovery programme to advise patients about the management of fatigue (95% agreed/ strongly agreed), breathlessness (94%), and mood disturbances (including symptoms of anxiety and depression) 92%. At the 6-8-week time point an assessment was considered important, focusing on the assessment of a broad range of possible symptoms and the need to potentially return to work. Recommendations for the intervention described a holistic programme focusing on symptom management, return of function and return to employment. The free text comments added depth to the survey and the need not to reinvent the wheel rather adapt well established (pulmonary rehabilitation) services to accommodate the needs of the post Covid-19 population. ConclusionThe responses indicate the huge interest and the urgent need establish a programme to support and mitigate the long term impact of Covid-19. Strengths and limitationsO_LILarge and comprehensive survey conducted to guide the provision of post Covid-19 rehabilitation. C_LIO_LIThe survey provides clear recommendations for the provision of advice and support immediately upon discharge, and recommendations for a programme of holistic rehabilitation 6-8 weeks post discharge based upon the existing pulmonary rehabilitation model. C_LIO_LIThe survey engaged a wide range of specialities and experiences managing Covid-19 C_LIO_LIThe opinions of patients and carers be sought in an additional survey C_LI Funding statementThis research received no specific grant funding from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sector. Competing interestsAll authors have completed the Unified Competing Interests Form at http://www.icmie.org.coi_disclosure.pdf Dr. Singh reports grants from Actegy, grants from Pfizer, outside the submitted work. Dr. Jenkins reports grants from Astra Zeneca, grants from Biogen, personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, personal fees from Daewoong, personal fees from Galapagos, grants from Galecto, grants from GlaxoSmithKline, personal fees from Heptares, non-financial support from NuMedii, grants and personal fees from Pliant, personal fees from Promedior, non-financial support from Redx, personal fees from Roche, other from Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis, outside the submitted work. Data sharing statementNo additional data are available.

A systematic review of Anakinra, Tocilizumab, Sarilumab and Siltuximab for coronavirus-related infections (preprint)

BackgroundThere is accumulating evidence for an overly activated immune response in severe Covid-19, with several studies exploring the therapeutic role of immunomodulation. Through systematic review and meta-analysis, we assess the effectiveness of specific interleukin inhibitors for the treatment of Covid-19. MethodsElectronic databases were searched on 7th January 2021 to identify studies of immunomodulatory agents (anakinra, sarilumab, siltuximab and tocilizumab) for the treatment of Covid-19. The primary outcomes were severity on an ordinal scale measured at day 15 from intervention and days to hospital discharge. Key secondary endpoints included overall mortality. Results71 studies totalling 22,058 patients were included, six were randomised trials. Most explored outcomes in patients who received tocilizumab (59/71). In prospective studies, tocilizumab was associated with improved unadjusted survival (RR 0.83 95%CI 0.72;0.96 I2 = 0.0%), but conclusive benefit was not demonstrated for other outcomes. In retrospective studies, tocilizumab was associated with less severe outcomes on an ordinal scale (Generalised odds ratio 1.34 95%CI 1.10;1.64, I2=98%) and adjusted mortality risk (HR 0.52 95%CI 0.41;0.66, I2 =76.6%). The mean difference in duration of hospitalisation was 0.36 days (95%CI -0.07;0.80, I2 =93.8%). There was substantial heterogeneity in retrospective studies, and estimates should be interpreted cautiously. Other immunomodulatory agents showed similar effects to tocilizumab, but insufficient data precluded meta-analysis by agent. ConclusionTocilizumab was associated with a lower relative risk of mortality in prospective studies, but effects were inconclusive for other outcomes. Current evidence for the efficacy of anakinra, siltuximab or sarilumab in Covid-19 is insufficient, with further studies urgently needed for conclusive findings.

Gene expression and in situ protein profiling of candidate SARS-CoV-2 receptors in human airway epithelial cells and lung tissue (preprint)

In December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 emerged causing the COVID-19 pandemic. SARS-CoV, the agent responsible for the 2003 SARS outbreak, utilizes ACE2 and TMPRSS2 host molecules for viral entry. ACE2 and TMPRSS2 have recently been implicated in SARS-CoV-2 viral infection. Additional host molecules including ADAM17, cathepsin L, CD147, and GRP78 may also function as receptors for SARS-CoV-2. To determine the expression and in situ localization of candidate SARS-CoV-2 receptors in the respiratory mucosa, we analyzed gene expression datasets from airway epithelial cells of 515 healthy subjects, gene promoter activity analysis using the FANTOM5 dataset containing 120 distinct sample types, single cell RNA sequencing (scRNAseq) of 10 healthy subjects, immunoblots on multiple airway epithelial cell types, and immunohistochemistry on 98 human lung samples. We demonstrate absent to low ACE2 promoter activity in a variety of lung epithelial cell samples and low ACE2 gene expression in both microarray and scRNAseq datasets of epithelial cell populations. Consistent with gene expression, rare ACE2 protein expression was observed in the airway epithelium and alveoli of human lung. We present confirmatory evidence for the presence of TMPRSS2, CD147, and GRP78 protein in vitro in airway epithelial cells and confirm broad in situ protein expression of CD147 in the respiratory mucosa. Collectively, our data suggest the presence of a mechanism dynamically regulating ACE2 expression in human lung, perhaps in periods of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and also suggest that alternate receptors for SARS-CoV-2 exist to facilitate initial host cell infection.